When the Math Gets Tight: Farming Smarter in 2026

This week, I read an article on AgWeb that stopped me for a minute. It featured Alex Harrell, a young, large-scale Georgia farmer who made a calculated—and difficult—decision: he’s letting go of more than half of the acres he’s rented for years. Not because he can’t farm them, but because the numbers no longer work. With today’s input costs and current commodity prices, farming all those acres would mean accepting losses. By farming thousands fewer acres, he expects to have the same or even better financial outcome. Talk about hard decisions to make, even when the math speaks the smart answer loud and clear!

The concern raised in that article was sobering. If tenants can’t afford to pay rent and cover production costs, some acres—particularly in parts of the Southeast—may simply not get farmed. That article made some national news, but the idea naturally raises a question closer to home:

Is anything like this happening, or on the horizon, here in the Midwest?

The Reality for Midwest Farmers (and Western Illinois, Specifically)

Short answer: not in the same dramatic way. But the pressures that led Harrell to his decision absolutely exist here, especially for operators who cash-rent a large portion of their acres.

Let’s walk through what the math looks like right now in western Illinois, using realistic 2026 projections and what I’m hearing locally.

Input Costs vs. Crop Prices: The Core Squeeze

For 2026, most western Illinois grain budgets are penciling out something like this:

Typical Western Illinois Projections (per acre):

• Corn

  • Expected yield: ~200–215 bu

  • Price assumption: ~$4.50–$4.75/bu

  • Gross revenue: ~$900–$1,000

• Soybeans

  • Expected yield: ~60–65 bu

  • Price assumption: ~$11.00–$11.75/bu

  • Gross revenue: ~$660–$760

Against that revenue:

• Non-land costs (seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, repairs, drying, labor):

  • Corn: ~$650–$725/acre

  • Soybeans: ~$425–$475/acre

That leaves a thin margin—before paying rent.

Cash Rent: Where Pressure Is Felt Most

In much of western Illinois, competitive cash rents remain firm:

• High-quality Class A ground: $325–$400+/acre

• Solid Class B ground: $250–$325/acre

When you layer those rents into the budget:

• Many cash-rented corn acres are breakeven at best

• Soybeans may show small positive margins, but not much cushion

• A weather hiccup, yield miss, or market pullback quickly turns red

This is where the stress shows up—not in abandonment, but in re-evaluation. Operators are quietly asking:

“Which acres actually help my operation, and which ones just keep me busy?”

Why Western Illinois Isn’t Seeing Widespread Acreage Drop (Yet)

There are some important differences between western Illinois and parts of the Southeast:

• Higher and more consistent yield potential provides a stronger revenue base

• Crop insurance and federal programs still offer meaningful downside protection

• Long-standing tenant–landowner relationships tend to slow abrupt exits

• Many operators here are excellent cost managers with deep local knowledge

So instead of acres being left idle, what we’re seeing is:

• Tighter input management

• More selective bidding on rented ground

• Quiet renegotiations or decisions to walk away from marginal acres

What This Feels Like on the Ground (Talking with Local Farmers)

For farmers cash-renting a majority of their acres in western Illinois, 2026 feels like:

• Less room for error

• More spreadsheet time

• More honest conversations with landlords

• Fewer “ego acres” and more discipline

Nobody I know is excited about farming at breakeven, but they are realistic. The goal has shifted from expansion to durability.

A Realistic (and Optimistic) Outlook

American farmers have always been problem solvers. This isn’t the first tight margin cycle, and it won’t be the last. What’s different now is how intentionally operators are responding.

Like Alex Harrell, many farmers are proving that:

Farming fewer acres well can be more profitable than farming more acres poorly.

Here in western Illinois, the soil, infrastructure, and farming skill set remain world-class. While the math is tighter, the system is resilient. Good land will continue to get farmed. Good operators will adapt. And over time, rents, inputs, and markets tend to find a better balance. It might be that this current 'pinch' ends up being just what was needed to spur more producers into making their operations smarter, and focusing on better land management practices that reduce their inputs and increases yields. (That's a blog for another time.)

The takeaway isn’t panic—it’s perspective.

Closing Thought

If you’re a landowner, this is a good season to understand your tenant’s economics. If you’re an operator, discipline is more valuable than acres. And if you’re watching farmland markets, these pressures help explain why values remain strong, even when profits tighten.

The land still matters. The people farming it still matter. And the story of Midwest agriculture is, as always, one of adjustment and perseverance.